Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk.

This study provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3-5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2-3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6-3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6-2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth-damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea-levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state-of-the-art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth-damage functions would be best reduced through open community-based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data.

Probiotics Fermented Bitter Melon Juice as Promising Complementary Agent for Diabetes Type 2: Study on Animal Model.

Background and Aim. Bitter melon (Momordica charantia/MC) contains charantin that has antidiabetic properties as an α-glucosidase inhibitor and antioxidative properties. Lactic acid fermentation using Lactobacillus fermentum LLB3 increased its antioxidative properties. The study was aimed to analyse the difference of the treatment that influences blood glucose and SOD level before and after treatment compared to acarbose. Experimental procedure. A total of 24 male Sprague-Dawley rats were used. Diabetes type 2 was induced by a single dose (60 mg/kg) of streptozotocin (STZ) and 120 mg/kg of nicotinamide, intraperitoneally. Following three days of STZ induction, the animals were randomly divided into four groups. Groups 1, 2, 3, and 4 were given acarbose 40 mg/100 g feed, MC 10 ml/kg body weight, fermented MC 10 ml/kg body weight, and distilled water, respectively, for 28 days. Glucose and SOD values were measured by spectrophotometer and ELISA, respectively. The difference between pretest and posttest data was analysed using the pair t-test. Data were analysed using ANOVA and Tukey HSD for post hoc analysis. Level of significance was set at 0.05. RESULTS: Fasting glucose and postprandial blood glucose were significantly decreased in groups given MC and fermented MC but not as low as those in the acarbose group (p < 0.001). The value of SOD significantly increased in groups given MC and fermented MC but not as high as those in the acarbose groups (p < 0.001). The value of SOD significantly increased in groups given MC and fermented MC but not as high as those in the acarbose groups (. CONCLUSION: Although MC gave significant results in increasing SOD and lowering fasting as well as postprandial blood glucose, fermented MC was better than MC, and acarbose still gave the best results.